The second day of the GLOBSEC 2024 Forum in Prague kicked off with a keynote address by Jan Lipavský, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, who emphasized the urgent need to address Russia’s boundless aggression against the West, noting that a Russian victory in Ukraine would likely not stop at Europe’s borders. 

Minister Lipavský stressed, “Anything is better than no response. Our inaction only confirms that Russia’s actions are justified.”

Seizing a Pivotal Moment: Defining Priorities for the New Commission

On the second day of the GLOBSEC 2024 Forum, GLOBSEC launched its new report, entitled “Seizing a Pivotal Moment: Defining Priorities for the New Commission,” on the European Union’s current state and future trajectory amidst multiple crises based on consultations with policymakers, business leaders, and experts from Central and Eastern European countries.

Jozef Bátora, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Comenius University in Bratislava & Webster University in Vienna, highlighted that “the European Commission should be a driver of the EU’s competitiveness.”

In this new report, GLOBSEC put forward a set of ideas that reflect CEE perspectives on the ideal priorities for Europe’s incoming leadership and highlights the region’s evolving influence following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the pressing need for a cohesive, resilient, and globally competitive Europe.

Read the report here: https://www.globsec.org/what-we-do/publications/pivotal-moment-europe-central-european-proposals-next-eu-leadership-1

Countering Russia’s hybrid threats

Russia continues its efforts to destabilize Western democracies. As Jan Lipavský, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, stated, “it is a well-orchestrated effort by the Russian state to dismantle our societies. And we see more action in this direction in recent years. They do it on purpose. It is a part of Russian strategy towards the West. And they are very open about it.”

Mihai Popșoi, Deputy Prime Minister & Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, stated that the Kremlin “exploits preexisting divisions and vulnerabilities for political ends” and that “the biggest narrative that Russians are pushing in Moldova is scaring our citizens by war. They want our EU accession to be synonymous with inviting war.”

Similarly, Stephen Doughty, Minister of State for Europe, North America and UK Overseas Territories, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office of the United Kingdom, expressed that “hybrid warfare is a direct threat for the UK,” as it includes a spectrum of acts, such as sabotage, disinformation, and chemical weapons, to name a few.

 Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Estonia, stated “we have been dealing with [Russian] cyber-attacks since 2007. Russia is always testing how far they can go before Article 5. This is exactly what they do: they are targeting our defence industry. We are ready for the cyberattacks, but at what moment will it cross the Article 5 threshold?”

Pål Jonson, Minister of Defence of the Kingdom of Sweden, expressed that hybrid warfare is nothing new to them: “opponents have always been trying to get your weak points, but it has evolved as technology has evolved.”

On pathways to tackle this challenge, Marie-Doha Besancenot, Assistant Secretary-General for Public Diplomacy, NATO, said, “What is difficult today is simply reaching into the Russian sphere” and asked, “How do we communicate to those who are really trapped in the system?”

She also underlined that “because Russia is not winning on the battlefield, it is investing massively in the information operations.”

Zoran Dimitrovski, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Foreign Trade of the Republic of North Macedonia: “in an article on banning Russia-sponsored media, I wrote that there should be no freedom to the enemies of freedom.”

On Russia’s Internal Policies

Released on August 1st in the historical prisoner exchange, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Vice President of the Free Russia Foundation narrates the circumstances of his arrest by Putin’s regime, the torture he underwent and the long-lasting health issues with which his experience has left him in  a one-on-one discussion with Kim Dozier of CNN.

NATO’s Path Forward

Angus Lapsley, Assistant Secretary-General for Defence Policy and Planning, NATO, stated “we are not asking countries to rip up the balance between social, economic, and defence spending, but to make sure that we are ready to deal with the threats we face, as it will not get better soon.” 

Following this, Anders Carp, Deputy CEO, Saab: “We’ve been able to indirectly support Ukraine by providing an indirect weapon. What we need to think about now is how are we going to provide repairs and continued training.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker argued that NATO enlargement, including Ukraine, is essential for peace and security. He suggested that Ukraine’s membership should be part of a broader strategy to end the war with Russia.

To accelerate digital transformation within NATO, Ana Isabela Xavier, Secretary of State, Ministry of National Defence of the Portuguese Republic, proposed several strategies, including reducing fragmentation, increasing defense investments, and enhancing joint training exercises. She emphasized that Ukraine’s situation has catalyzed cooperation among allies and highlighted the importance of logistics and secure communication.

EU – China Relations

Have the autocratic states better understood the needs of the 21st-century technology revolution than democratic states? Robin Shepherd, Global Fellow at the Wilson Centre believes so. 

According to Shepherd, trading with countries like China poses risks such as industry espionage and technology stealing. Furthermore, China’s technological miracle is partly fueled by the technologies that the West has voluntarily brought there, according to Petr Pudil, Co-founder, BPD partners and Chairman of the Board of the GLOBSEC US Foundation. 

Pudil noted that China’s ability to scale up far exceeds Europe’s and recommended that Europe focus on its own priorities and challenges, ideally by its intellectual property quickly. 

Europe is able to be more innovative. However, trade policies have to be adjusted accordingly. Ultimately, “Someone can say that we live in the worst of times, but when it comes to AI and technology, we can say we live in the best of times,” stated Mirek Dušek, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum.

Shaping Europe’s Defence Strategy

“If we allow Russia to take 20% of Ukraine, [do you believe] Russia will say thank you? My guess is that they will say thank you and move on in Ukraine or other countries, including NATO countries. There is no alternative to Ukraine winning this war,” stated Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Denmark. She also added, “as Europeans, no matter what happens in the US, we should be able to do more on our own” and that “A Europe that is not willing to defend itself is not a Europe.”

Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, Atlantic Council, emphasized the need for a roadmap to enhance military capabilities and balance EU-US relationships.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland, shared his perspective on global politics, emphasizing three key points. First, the world is no longer bipolar, and the post-WWII institutions no longer solely define global power structures, leading to a significant shift in the balance of power. He identifies three spheres of power in the current global dynamics:

  • The global West, including Europe, North America, Japan, and South Korea;
  • The global East, including China, Russia, and Iran;
  • The global South, including approximately 125 countries, such as fast-growing nations like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria.

EU, the Indo-Pacific, and East Asia

Nathalie Loiseau, Member, Committee on Foreign Affairs, European Parliament: “if we want to keep the US involved in Europe, we need to play our part in Indo-Pacific”

Latika Bourke, Writer-at-Large, The Nightly, commented, “One of the problems I observe about Europe is that you talk nice about the values, but when it comes to trade deals, you are nowhere to be seen.” In response, Bryce Wakefield, Chief Executive Officer of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, stated, “I think we might be asking a little bit too much from Europe to play a hardcore military role in the Indo-Pacific.”

On the other hand, Joseph Wu, Secretary General, National Security Council (Taiwan) explains that “Taiwan is a primary barometer of the People Republic of China’s (PRC) military ambitions,” but that “Europe is key for building integrated deterrence in the face of PRC.”

Simon Birmingham, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs & Senator for South stated that “setting the example to support Ukraine will create a deterrence example when it comes to conflicts,” including China’s intentions regarding Taiwan.

Navigating the Digital Frontier

The need for skilled workers and the importance of inclusivity in new technologies like AI was emphasized, with Ivan Bartoš, Deputy Prime Minister & Minister of Digitalization of Czechia, stating that “in the Czech Republic, 500,000 people may face unemployment in a few years due to a lack of necessary skills.”

While cyber-attacks on governments and companies are of significant concern, mis- and disinformation, especially regarding elections, is something to keep an eye on. Nanna-Louise Wildfang Linde, Vice President of European Government Affairs, Microsoft, claims that “self-regulation is not enough. We need to have rules that the industry abides by.”

In this digital age, surveillance ethics has become a significant topic. Technology has made surveillance easy and inexpensive; it’s been rolled out on a massive scale by governments, good and bad, by companies, and by criminal organizations as well that are using this technology.

Chief Security Officer of Deutsche Telekom, Thomas Tschersich, emphasized the dangers of overconsumption of digital content, like cookies, and the importance of companies providing the right technology to safeguard customers’ privacy and data. 

Meredith Whittaker, President of Signal, discussed the power dynamics inherent in surveillance, highlighting the relationship between those who conduct it and those who are subjected to it. She noted that while the stakes and consequences of surveillance have intensified, the ethical considerations are primarily social and political.

To the audience, Tscherich tells them: “take care of your digital identity, don’t make it easy for attackers.”

On the Western Balkans and Enlargement

There is growing frustration among the candidate countries in the Western Balkans, but neglecting the region would be a mistake, as it could invite Russian influence. While it’s essential that these countries meet the necessary conditions, we must actively engage with them.

Against this backdrop, Martin Dvořák, Minister for European Affairs of the Czech Republic, claimed, “I am regrettably seeing an increase in frustration in the candidate countries. There might be some degree of misunderstanding. They are doing their best, and for us, it is not enough.”

Yet, Edi Rama, Prime Minister of the Republic of Albania, claimed that “the biggest promoter of EU enlargement was not Macron. It was Putin. And this is the tragic optimism here.”

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Fourth President of the Republic of Croatia explained that the issue of enlargement fatigue must be addressed, as enthusiasm for reforms tend to wane. As countries get closer to accession, doubts begin to surface, with people questioning whether it’s truly what they need.

In comparison, Christian Danielsson, State Secretary to the Minister for EU Affairs of the Kingdom of Sweden, emphasized that “there is a momentum in enlargement, and it needs to be used,” adding,“we have a fundamental interest that the Western Balkans countries are members of the European Union.”

When Aleksandar Vučić, President of the Republic of Serbia, was asked about his country’s accession process, he answered: “whenever we say ‘yes we want to be a part of the EU,’ I always hear the doubts “no, you want to be a Russian trojan horse there.” I hear this every day. But we have to build trust and cooperation instead. We have to reach a common denominator that will bring us closer to the EU.”

Christian Schmidt, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, expressed optimism on the EU’s enlargement: “young people in the Balkans are just waiting to make their contribution to the European Integration.”

While Vučić does not believe that Montenegro will be a part of the EU by 2028, Jakov Milatović, President of Montenegro, fought back: “Montenegro is a front-runner for the membership. We’re tired of running, and we want to move to the final stage.”

Thomas Bagger, State Secretary, Federal Foreign Office of the Federal Republic of Germany, stated: “If we are serious about Ukraine and Moldova, then we have to be serious about the Western Balkans.

Vjosa Osmani, President of the Republic of Kosovo knows, “We picked the right friends, we share the same values with the Euro Atlantic family.”

Standing with Ukraine

European support for Ukraine is still strong. The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb reiterated: “the reason for our strong support for Ukraine is very obvious. We’ve been there. We are not going to have a problem to carry on the support of the fight against imperialism.”

Mikuláš Dzurinda, President, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies & Former Prime Minister of Slovakia: “the vast majority of our citizens in Eastern European Countries are united around Ukraine. We understand the danger of the Kremlin.”

Sebastian Kurz, Former Chancellor of Austria, voiced that the EU should not “repeat the same mistakes too often,” adding, “I like the idea of not taking away hope from people, where hope is needed, but at the same time, I think it’s also good to be fair and transparent with partners and not create hope that will never become a reality. I see it in a bit in the Western Balkans.:

Finish President Stubb stated that the United States and China, respectively, need to be less rigid on armament to Ukraine and call out Russia for the atrocities it is committing.

Kira Rudik, Vice President, ALDE & Member of Parliament, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, explained how Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has changed many things, including the influence of the oligarchs, with some having lost their influence or even leaving the country. She pressed that they should not be replaced with new oligarchs.

Daniel Fried, former US Ambassador to Poland & Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council, mentioned that while Ukrainian accession might be complicated, it is nowhere near as problematic as the war we are already dealing with. In his view, the NATO and EU enlargement might have to proceed together, although not totally intertwined. 

On the topic of demining

On the occasion of the GLOBSEC Forum, DOK-ING, a leading global provider of advanced robotic systems designed for demining, firefighting, and hazardous environment operation donated a MV-4 demining robotic system to Ukraine’s State Special Transport Service.

The MV-4 Demining Robotic System, known for its cutting-edge technology and efficiency in clearing landmines, represents a crucial contribution to the collaborative efforts aimed at rebuilding and securing conflict-affected regions.

Learn more about this donation here: https://forum2024.globsec.org/on-the-occasion-of-the-globsec-forum-dok-ing-donates-mv-4-demining-robotic-system-to-ukraines-state-special-transport-service/ 

About GLOBSEC 2024

GLOBSEC is an action-oriented policy institution born in Central Europe, with an international presence in Bratislava, Prague, Brussels, Vienna, Kyiv, and Washington D.C. Established in 2005, GLOBSEC is an independent, non-partisan, non-governmental organisation dedicated to enhancing security, prosperity, and sustainability in Europe and the world. To this goal contributes the annual GLOBSEC Forum, one of the leading global security conferences. GLOBSEC also organises the annual GLOBSEC Tatra Summit, a conference that provides the opportunity for experts to have discussions on the economic future of Europe.

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